Research.

Model development and

applications

Commissioned Projects

• 2016  Implications of the UK EU referendum outcome: Impact of migration patterns on the state pension system, Institute for Arts and Actuaries (UK) • 2015  Modelling Poverty, Joseph Rowntree Foundation (UK) [on-going] • 2014  Poverty modelling feasibility study, Joseph Rowntree Foundation (UK) • 2013  Retirement savings analysis, NAPF and AgeUK (UK) • 2013  A microsimulation model for Italy, European Commission (Italy, EU) • 2013  Estimating the intertemporal elasiticity of substitution: a cross-sectional approach, University of Melbourne (AUST) • 2012  A model to simulate lifetime incomes, HM Treasury (UK) • 2011  Response to the pensions Green Paper, Department for Work and Pensions (UK) • 2011  Multi-pillar pension schemes and macroeconomic performance, (NETSPAR, Netherlands) • 2010  The influence of decision making costs on the effectiveness of tax incentives to save, Economic and Social Research Council & HM Revenue and Customs (ESRC & HMRC, UK) • 2010  Modelling of pension reforms: Building from UK experience to Irish policy analysis, European Commission (Ireland, EU) • 2009  National Institute benefit and tax model, HMRC & DWP (UK) • 2008  The effects of decision making myopia on private provisions for retirement, Leverhulme Trust (UK) • 2007  Modelling the implications of the National Pension Savings Scheme, HM Revenue and Customs & Department for Work and Pensions (UK) • 2006  Population change, demographic uncertainty and financial risk, ESRC (UK) • 2005  Understanding debt, Department for Work and Pensions (UK)

Publications

Model Manuals

• USER MANUAL: van de Ven, J. (2018), “The National Institute model for lifetime income distributional analysis, LINDA”. • PROGRAMMING GUIDE: van de Ven, J. (2016), “The simulator of individual dynamic decisions, SIDD: An introductory programming guide”. • MODEL REFERENCE: van de Ven, J. (2017), “SIDD: An adaptable framework for analysing the distributional implications of policy alternatives where savings and employment decisions matter”, Economic Modelling, 63, pp. 161-174. • TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION: van de Ven, J. (2016), “LINDA: A dynamic microsimulation model for analysing policy effects on the evolving population cross-section”, NIESR Discussion Paper 459. • TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION: van de Ven, J. (2017), “Parameterising a detailed dynamic programming model of savings and labour supply using cross-sectional data”, International Journal of Microsimulation, 10, pp. 135-166.

Refereed Articles

• van de Ven, J. (2017), “Exploring the importance of behavioural endogeneity for policy projections”, International Journal of Microsimulation, 10, pp. 134-164. • van de Ven, J. (2017), “Parameterising a detailed dynamic programming model of savings and labour supply using cross-sectional data”, International Journal of Microsimulation, 10, pp. 135-166. • van de Ven, J. (2017), “SIDD: An adaptable framework for analysing the distributional implications of policy alternatives where savings and employment decisions matter”, Economic Modelling, 63, pp. 161-174. • Armstrong, A. and van de Ven, J. (2016), “The Impact of Possible Migration Scenarios after ‘Brexit’ on the State Pension System”, Economies, 4, pp. 1-13. • van de Ven, J. (2013), “Analysis of pension reform scenarios in a rational world: An application of the NIBAX behavioural micro- simulation model”, Department for Work and Pensions Working Paper Series 117. • van de Ven, J. (2011), “A structural dynamic microsimulation model of household savings and labour supply”, Economic Modelling, 28, pp. 2054-2070. • Sefton, J. and van de Ven, J. (2009), “Optimal design of means tested retirement benefits”, Economic Journal, 119, pp. F461-F481. • Sefton, J., van de Ven, J. and Weale, M. (2008), “Means-testing retirement benefits: fostering equity or discouraging savings”, Economic Journal, 118, pp. 556-590. • Sefton, J., van de Ven, J. and Weale, M. (2005), “Means Testing and Retirement Choices in Europe: A comparison of the British and Danish Systems”, Fiscal Studies, 26, pp. 83-118. • Sefton, J. and van de Ven, J. (2004), “Simulating Household Savings and Labour Supply”, National Institute Economic Review, 188, pp. 56- 72.

Book Chapters

• van de Ven, J. (2017), The Simulator of Individual Dynamic Decisions, SIDD. In Applications of Microsimulation Modelling. Edited by G. Dekkers and J. Mészáros. Central Administration of National Pension Insurance: Budapest • van de Ven, J. (2012), Do Defined Contribution Pensions Correct for Short-Sighted Savings Decisions? Evidence from the UK. In Analysing Pensions: Modelling and Policy Issues. Edited by T. Callan and J. O’Connell. ESRI: Dublin • Callan, T., Keane, C. and van de Ven, J. (2012), A Framework for Pension Policy Analysis in Ireland: PENMOD, a Dynamic Simulation Model. In Analysing Pensions: Modelling and Policy Issues. Edited by T. Callan and J. O’Connell. ESRI: Dublin.

Working Papers

• van de Ven, J. (2013), “The influence of decision costs on investments in Individual Savings Accounts”, NIESR Discussion Paper 407. • van de Ven, J. and Weale, M. (2010), “An empirical investigation of quasi-hyperbolic discounting”, NIESR Discussion Paper 355. • van de Ven, J. (2010), “The effects of myopia on pension decisions”, NIESR Discussion Paper 356. • van de Ven, J. and Weale, M. (2009), “Consumption, employment uncertainty, and capital losses”, NIESR Discussion Paper 346. • van de Ven, J. and Weale, M. (2009), “A Structural Dynamic Micro-Simulation Model for Policy Analysis: Application to Pension Reform, Income Tax Changes and Rising Life Expectancy”, NIESR Discussion Paper 336. • van de Ven, J., Skeen, A. and Voitchovsky, S. (2009), “A simulation analysis of the effects of the socio-economic environment on fertility and female labour supply decisions in the United Kingdom”, NIESR Discussion Paper 324. • van de Ven, J. and Weale, M. (2008), “The influence of unsecured debt on consumer responses to an adverse labour market shock - implications from a rational agent model”, NIESR Discussion Paper 310. • van de Ven, J. and Weale, M. (2008), “Unsecured indebtedness in the United Kingdom - implications from a rational agent model”, NIESR Discussion Paper 309.

Invited Conference and

Seminar Presentations

• “Pseudo panel data for model parameterisation”, Oct 2019, The Use of Administrative and Longitudinal Data for Distributional Analysis, Essex UK. • “The importance of behavioural endogeneity for policy projections”, Jun 2017, 6th World Congress of the International Microsimulation Association, Turin Italy. • “LINDA and SIDD: Structural dynamic microsimulation modelling at the National Institute”, Jan 2017, Economic Measurement and Analysis: A Conference in Honour of Martin Weale, London UK. • “LINDA and SIDD: Structural dynamic microsimulation modelling at the National Institute”, Sep 2016, European Meeting of the International Microsimulation Association, Budapest Hungary. • “Adapting the LINDA Model”, Joseph Rowntree Foundation Eliminating Poverty, Apr 2015, York, UK. • “Using LINDA to model long-term anti-poverty strategies”, Joseph Rowntree Foundation Eliminating Poverty, 12 Dec 2014, York (UK) • “The Lifetime INcome Distributional Analysis model: LINDA”, Jul 2014, HM Treasury, London UK. • “The influence of decision making costs on the effectiveness of tax incentives to save”, Oct 2013, New Zealand Treasury, Auckland New Zealand. • “Using dynamic programming methods to evaluate relative risk aversion on cross- sectional data”, Oct 2013, Australian National University, Canberra Australia. • “Analysing Behavioural Responses to Policy Change in Dynamic Decision Environments”, Mar 2012, Melbourne Institute, Melbourne Australia. • “A framework for pension policy analysis in Ireland: PENMOD, a dynamic simulation model”, May 2011, Dublin Ireland. • “Review of the Analytical Approaches to Pensions Policy Reform in the UK”, Feb 2011, Tokyo Japan.