SIDD Simulator of Individual Dynamic Decisions

Research.

Model development and applications

Commissioned Projects

2016  Implications of the UK EU referendum outcome: Impact of migration patterns on the state pension system, Institute for Arts and Actuaries (UK) 2015  Modelling Poverty, Joseph Rowntree Foundation (UK) [on-going] 2014  Poverty modelling feasibility study, Joseph Rowntree Foundation (UK) 2013  Retirement savings analysis, NAPF and AgeUK (UK) 2013  A microsimulation model for Italy, European Commission (Italy, EU) 2013  Estimating the intertemporal elasiticity of substitution: a cross-sectional approach, University of Melbourne (AUST) 2012  A model to simulate lifetime incomes, HM Treasury (UK) 2010  The influence of decision making costs on the effectiveness of tax incentives to save, Economic and Social Research Council & HM Revenue and Customs (ESRC & HMRC, UK) 2010  Modelling of pension reforms: Building from UK experience to Irish policy analysis, European Commission (Ireland, EU) 2009  National Institute benefit and tax model, HMRC & DWP (UK) 2008  The effects of decision making myopia on private provisions for retirement, Leverhulme Trust (UK) 2007  Modelling the implications of the National Pension Savings Scheme, HM Revenue and Customs & Department for Work and Pensions (UK) 2006  Population change, demographic uncertainty and financial risk, ESRC (UK) 2005  Understanding debt, Department for Work and Pensions (UK)

Publications

Model Manuals

USER MANUAL: van de Ven, J. (2016), “The National Institute model for lifetime income distributional analysis, LINDA”. PROGRAMMING GUIDE: van de Ven, J. (2016), “The simulator of individual dynamic decisions, SIDD: An introductory programming guide”. MODEL REFERENCE: van de Ven, J. (2017), “SIDD: An adaptable framework for analysing the distributional implications of policy alternatives where savings and employment decisions matter”, Economic Modelling, 63, pp. 161-174. TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION: van de Ven, J. (2016), “LINDA: A dynamic microsimulation model for analysing policy effects on the evolving population cross-section”, NIESR Discussion Paper 459. TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION: van de Ven, J. (2017), “Parameterising a detailed dynamic programming model of savings and labour supply using cross-sectional data”, International Journal of Microsimulation, 10, pp. 135-166.

Refereed Articles

van de Ven, J. (2017), “Parameterising a detailed dynamic programming model of savings and labour supply using cross-sectional data”, International Journal of Microsimulation, 10, pp. 135-166. van de Ven, J. (2017), “SIDD: An adaptable framework for analysing the distributional implications of policy alternatives where savings and employment decisions matter”, Economic Modelling, 63, pp. 161-174. Armstrong, A. and van de Ven, J. (2016), “The Impact of Possible Migration Scenarios after ‘Brexit’ on the State Pension System”, Economies, 4, pp. 1-13. van de Ven, J. (2013), “Analysis of pension reform scenarios in a rational world: An application of the NIBAX behavioural micro-simulation model”, Department for Work and Pensions Working Paper Series 117. van de Ven, J. (2011), “A structural dynamic microsimulation model of household savings and labour supply”, Economic Modelling, 28, pp. 2054-2070. Sefton, J. and van de Ven, J. (2009), “Optimal design of means tested retirement benefits”, Economic Journal, 119, pp. F461-F481. Sefton, J., van de Ven, J. and Weale, M. (2008), “Means-testing retirement benefits: fostering equity or discouraging savings”, Economic Journal, 118, pp. 556-590. Sefton, J., van de Ven, J. and Weale, M. (2005), “Means Testing and Retirement Choices in Europe: A comparison of the British and Danish Systems”, Fiscal Studies, 26, pp. 83-118.

Book Chapters

van de Ven, J. (2012), Do Defined Contribution Pensions Correct for Short-Sighted Savings Decisions? Evidence from the UK. In Analysing Pensions: Modelling and Policy Issues. Edited by T. Callan and J. O’Connell. ESRI: Dublin Callan, T., Keane, C. and van de Ven, J. (2012), A Framework for Pension Policy Analysis in Ireland: PENMOD, a Dynamic Simulation Model. In Analysing Pensions: Modelling and Policy Issues. Edited by T. Callan and J. O’Connell. ESRI: Dublin.

Working Papers

van de Ven, J. (2017), “Exploring the importance of behavioural endogeneity for policy projections”, Prepared for presentation at 6th World Congress of the International Microsimulation Association, June Turin. van de Ven, J. (2013), “The influence of decision costs on investments in Individual Savings Accounts”, NIESR Discussion Paper 407. van de Ven, J. and Weale, M. (2010), “An empirical investigation of quasi-hyperbolic discounting”, NIESR Discussion Paper 355. van de Ven, J. (2010), “The effects of myopia on pension decisions”, NIESR Discussion Paper 356. van de Ven, J. and Weale, M. (2009), “Consumption, employment uncertainty, and capital losses”, NIESR Discussion Paper 346. van de Ven, J. and Weale, M. (2009), “A Structural Dynamic Micro-Simulation Model for Policy Analysis: Application to Pension Reform, Income Tax Changes and Rising Life Expectancy”, NIESR Discussion Paper 336. van de Ven, J., Skeen, A. and Voitchovsky, S. (2009), “A simulation analysis of the effects of the socio-economic environment on fertility and female labour supply decisions in the United Kingdom”, NIESR Discussion Paper 324. van de Ven, J. and Weale, M. (2008), “The influence of unsecured debt on consumer responses to an adverse labour market shock - implications from a rational agent model”, NIESR Discussion Paper 310. van de Ven, J. and Weale, M. (2008), “Unsecured indebtedness in the United Kingdom - implications from a rational agent model”, NIESR Discussion Paper 309.

Presentations

“The importance of behavioural endogeneity for policy projections”, Jun 2017, 6th World Congress of the International Microsimulation Association, Turin Italy. “LINDA and SIDD: Structural dynamic microsimulation modelling at the National Institute”, Jan 2017, Economic Measurement and Analysis: A Conference in Honour of Martin Weale, London UK. “LINDA and SIDD: Structural dynamic microsimulation modelling at the National Institute”, Sep 2016, European Meeting of the International Microsimulation Association, Budapest Hungary. “The Lifetime INcome Distributional Analysis model: LINDA”, Jul 2014, HM Treasury, London UK. “The influence of decision making costs on the effectiveness of tax incentives to save”, Oct 2013, New Zealand Treasury, Auckland New Zealand. “Using dynamic programming methods to evaluate relative risk aversion on cross- sectional data”, Oct 2013, Australian National University, Canberra Australia. “Analysing Behavioural Responses to Policy Change in Dynamic Decision Environments”, Mar 2012, Melbourne Institute, Melbourne Australia. “A framework for pension policy analysis in Ireland: PENMOD, a dynamic simulation model”, May 2011, Dublin Ireland. “Review of the Analytical Approaches to Pensions Policy Reform in the UK”, Feb 2011, Tokyo Japan.
SIDD Simulator of Individual Dynamic Decisions

Research.

Model development and

applications

Commissioned Projects

2016  Implications of the UK EU referendum outcome: Impact of migration patterns on the state pension system, Institute for Arts and Actuaries (UK) 2015  Modelling Poverty, Joseph Rowntree Foundation (UK) [on-going] 2014  Poverty modelling feasibility study, Joseph Rowntree Foundation (UK) 2013  Retirement savings analysis, NAPF and AgeUK (UK) 2013  A microsimulation model for Italy, European Commission (Italy, EU) 2013  Estimating the intertemporal elasiticity of substitution: a cross-sectional approach, University of Melbourne (AUST) 2012  A model to simulate lifetime incomes, HM Treasury (UK) 2010  The influence of decision making costs on the effectiveness of tax incentives to save, Economic and Social Research Council & HM Revenue and Customs (ESRC & HMRC, UK) 2010  Modelling of pension reforms: Building from UK experience to Irish policy analysis, European Commission (Ireland, EU) 2009  National Institute benefit and tax model, HMRC & DWP (UK) 2008  The effects of decision making myopia on private provisions for retirement, Leverhulme Trust (UK) 2007  Modelling the implications of the National Pension Savings Scheme, HM Revenue and Customs & Department for Work and Pensions (UK) 2006  Population change, demographic uncertainty and financial risk, ESRC (UK) 2005  Understanding debt, Department for Work and Pensions (UK)

Publications

Model Manuals

USER MANUAL: van de Ven, J. (2016), “The National Institute model for lifetime income distributional analysis, LINDA”. PROGRAMMING GUIDE: van de Ven, J. (2016), “The simulator of individual dynamic decisions, SIDD: An introductory programming guide”. MODEL REFERENCE: van de Ven, J. (2017), “SIDD: An adaptable framework for analysing the distributional implications of policy alternatives where savings and employment decisions matter”, Economic Modelling, 63, pp. 161-174. TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION: van de Ven, J. (2016), “LINDA: A dynamic microsimulation model for analysing policy effects on the evolving population cross-section”, NIESR Discussion Paper 459. TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION: van de Ven, J. (2017), “Parameterising a detailed dynamic programming model of savings and labour supply using cross-sectional data”, International Journal of Microsimulation, 10, pp. 135-166.

Refereed Articles

van de Ven, J. (2017), “Parameterising a detailed dynamic programming model of savings and labour supply using cross-sectional data”, International Journal of Microsimulation, 10, pp. 135-166. van de Ven, J. (2017), “SIDD: An adaptable framework for analysing the distributional implications of policy alternatives where savings and employment decisions matter”, Economic Modelling, 63, pp. 161-174. Armstrong, A. and van de Ven, J. (2016), “The Impact of Possible Migration Scenarios after ‘Brexit’ on the State Pension System”, Economies, 4, pp. 1-13. van de Ven, J. (2013), “Analysis of pension reform scenarios in a rational world: An application of the NIBAX behavioural micro- simulation model”, Department for Work and Pensions Working Paper Series 117. van de Ven, J. (2011), “A structural dynamic microsimulation model of household savings and labour supply”, Economic Modelling, 28, pp. 2054-2070. Sefton, J. and van de Ven, J. (2009), “Optimal design of means tested retirement benefits”, Economic Journal, 119, pp. F461-F481. Sefton, J., van de Ven, J. and Weale, M. (2008), “Means-testing retirement benefits: fostering equity or discouraging savings”, Economic Journal, 118, pp. 556-590. Sefton, J., van de Ven, J. and Weale, M. (2005), “Means Testing and Retirement Choices in Europe: A comparison of the British and Danish Systems”, Fiscal Studies, 26, pp. 83-118.

Book Chapters

van de Ven, J. (2012), Do Defined Contribution Pensions Correct for Short-Sighted Savings Decisions? Evidence from the UK. In Analysing Pensions: Modelling and Policy Issues. Edited by T. Callan and J. O’Connell. ESRI: Dublin Callan, T., Keane, C. and van de Ven, J. (2012), A Framework for Pension Policy Analysis in Ireland: PENMOD, a Dynamic Simulation Model. In Analysing Pensions: Modelling and Policy Issues. Edited by T. Callan and J. O’Connell. ESRI: Dublin.

Working Papers

van de Ven, J. (2017), “Exploring the importance of behavioural endogeneity for policy projections”, Prepared for presentation at 6th World Congress of the International Microsimulation Association, June Turin. van de Ven, J. (2013), “The influence of decision costs on investments in Individual Savings Accounts”, NIESR Discussion Paper 407. van de Ven, J. and Weale, M. (2010), “An empirical investigation of quasi-hyperbolic discounting”, NIESR Discussion Paper 355. van de Ven, J. (2010), “The effects of myopia on pension decisions”, NIESR Discussion Paper 356. van de Ven, J. and Weale, M. (2009), “Consumption, employment uncertainty, and capital losses”, NIESR Discussion Paper 346. van de Ven, J. and Weale, M. (2009), “A Structural Dynamic Micro-Simulation Model for Policy Analysis: Application to Pension Reform, Income Tax Changes and Rising Life Expectancy”, NIESR Discussion Paper 336. van de Ven, J., Skeen, A. and Voitchovsky, S. (2009), “A simulation analysis of the effects of the socio-economic environment on fertility and female labour supply decisions in the United Kingdom”, NIESR Discussion Paper 324. van de Ven, J. and Weale, M. (2008), “The influence of unsecured debt on consumer responses to an adverse labour market shock - implications from a rational agent model”, NIESR Discussion Paper 310. van de Ven, J. and Weale, M. (2008), “Unsecured indebtedness in the United Kingdom - implications from a rational agent model”, NIESR Discussion Paper 309.

Presentations

“The importance of behavioural endogeneity for policy projections”, Jun 2017, 6th World Congress of the International Microsimulation Association, Turin Italy. “LINDA and SIDD: Structural dynamic microsimulation modelling at the National Institute”, Jan 2017, Economic Measurement and Analysis: A Conference in Honour of Martin Weale, London UK. “LINDA and SIDD: Structural dynamic microsimulation modelling at the National Institute”, Sep 2016, European Meeting of the International Microsimulation Association, Budapest Hungary. “The Lifetime INcome Distributional Analysis model: LINDA”, Jul 2014, HM Treasury, London UK. “The influence of decision making costs on the effectiveness of tax incentives to save”, Oct 2013, New Zealand Treasury, Auckland New Zealand. “Using dynamic programming methods to evaluate relative risk aversion on cross- sectional data”, Oct 2013, Australian National University, Canberra Australia. “Analysing Behavioural Responses to Policy Change in Dynamic Decision Environments”, Mar 2012, Melbourne Institute, Melbourne Australia. “A framework for pension policy analysis in Ireland: PENMOD, a dynamic simulation model”, May 2011, Dublin Ireland. “Review of the Analytical Approaches to Pensions Policy Reform in the UK”, Feb 2011, Tokyo Japan.